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A Front Brings Flooding Rain and Wet Snow
The Thursday outlook still governs Friday: a Moderate Risk of excessive rain on the Southern Plains, severe-storm risks farther east, and wet snow Saturday.
Primary sources
NOAA Weather Prediction Center · agency · published 2026-10-15
National Weather Service · agency · published standing page
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Script
NOAA's Weather Prediction Center says a low over the Middle Mississippi Valley will reach the Canadian Maritimes by late Friday evening. Gulf moisture along the front brought heavy rain to the Southern Plains on Thursday. Parts of the Southern Plains are under a Moderate Risk through Friday morning. Numerous flash floods are possible. Streams may flood, and larger rivers could be affected. Debris flows are possible near recently burned areas. Friday morning, rain continues over parts of western Texas. A Slight Risk covers the Ohio Valley through Friday morning: frequent lightning, severe wind, hail, and a few tornadoes. The Mid-Atlantic has a Slight Risk from Friday through Saturday morning: lightning, severe wind, a few tornadoes, and minimal hail. Wet snow is expected Saturday morning over the Northeast and the Lower Great Lakes. If the road is flooded, turn around. Twelve inches of rushing water can carry away most cars.
Claims
Issued 2:45 p.m. EDT Thursday, October 15, 2026, and valid from 00Z Friday, October 16 through 00Z Sunday, October 18: low pressure over the Middle Mississippi Valley will move northeast to the Canadian Maritimes by late Friday evening.
Gulf moisture pooling along and ahead of the front produced heavy rain over the Southern Plains on Thursday. WPC issued a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) of excessive rainfall there through Friday morning. Numerous flash floods are possible. Many streams may flood, potentially affecting larger rivers. Flooding may include debris flows in or near recently burned areas.
On Friday morning, rain continues over parts of western Texas. That sentence is separate from the Southern Plains Moderate Risk.
SPC issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for the Ohio Valley Thursday through Friday morning: frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. A Slight Risk for the Mid-Atlantic runs Friday through Saturday morning: frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.
Wet snow will develop over parts of the Northeast and the Lower Great Lakes on Saturday morning. Light wet snow will develop over higher elevations in the Northeast.
Twelve inches of rushing water can carry away most cars. Six inches of fast-moving flood water can knock over an adult, and two feet of rushing water can carry away SUVs and trucks.